How Rare Are Shiny Magikarp In Pokemon GO? According To The Data, Not As Rare As You May Think

How Rare Are Shiny Magikarp In Pokemon GO

Now that the Water Festival event is well and truly over, and Shiny Magikarp are finally a thing in Pokemon GO, I think it’s about time we attempt to answer a very important question. Just how rare are shiny Magikarp in Pokemon GO?

In the main-series games, shiny Pokemon are incredibly rare. From Generation 2 all the way through Generation 5, you had a 1/8192 chance of encountering a shiny Pokemon in the wild. From Generation 6 onward, the odds were doubled; giving the player a 1/4096 chance. But what about in Pokemon GO?

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At the moment, Magikarp are the only Pokemon in Pokemon GO that can be shiny. At some point in the future the other Pokemon will be added, but for now, all we have is the weak orange fish. So when it comes to finding out how rare shiny Pokemon are, the best we can do is try to figure out how rare shiny Magikarp are.

And shiny Magikarp seem to be far more common than in the main-series games. Thanks to a poll from The Silph Road, we can see that out of 17,589 Magikarp that were seen, 75 were shiny. This comes out to be around 1/235, which is roughly 17x better than the current generation of main-series Pokemon games.

How Rare Are Shiny Magikarp In Pokemon GO
Source: Pokemon, Fair Use

Of course, that’s not the end of the story. In reality, the odds of finding a shiny Magikarp are probably worse than this, simply because in a poll that asks you how many Magikarp you’ve seen (and how many were shiny), players who haven’t caught a shiny ‘Karp yet are less likely to answer than those who have.

Thus, the data is probably (almost definitely) skewed. That being said, Pokemon GO is a more casual game when compared to main-series Pokemon games, so it’s no surprise that the encounter rate of shiny Magikarp is much higher than we’re used to.

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At the end of the day, we’re not 100% that the numbers above represent the actual rarity of shiny Magikarp. Until we can gather more data, and more specifically, more data from people who haven’t caught a shiny Magikarp yet, we’re not going to be certain of the exact encounter rate of shiny Magikarp.

But what do you think? How rare are shiny Magikarp in Pokemon GO? Does 1 in 235 sound about right? Or do you think they’re more (or less) rare than that? Let me know what you think in the comment section below!

P.S. Do you want to win 2,500 Poke Coins? If you answered “yes”, click here to enter our Easter giveaway where you’ll go into the running to win 2,500 Poke Coins to spend in Pokemon GO!

61 Comments

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  1. I have caught 3 shiny magikarps in total first one was on the 11th of last month, second one 17th of last month and my third one was on the 17th of this month. Total number of magikarps seen 296 caught 280. Encounters that were shiny only 3 out of 296 were shiny. 16 normal magikarps escaped. Location of all three shinies were caught at the same location but different times. Dunno if the event had anything to do with it as told my dad its to do with luck on the encounter being a shiny

  2. It is in reality a nice and helpful piece of information. I
    am satisfied that you shared this useful information with us.
    Please stay us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

  3. I have caught well over the 400 Magikarp. Today I caught my first shiny one. Only a cp of 65 but the only one I have even seen.

  4. I have caught over 289 Magikarp (out of 296) and today, on my last Magikarp of the day, it turned out to be SHINY! And while trying to catch it, my game crashed! I rebooted it and no Magikarp. 🙁 Then I waited and it reappeared and I caught it for good. CP 127. 🙂

    So I would guess that the above stats are roughly correct. At least for me.

  5. Ever since the shines magikarp came out I have captured over 1500 magikarps and not 1 has been shiney and this is all on the same account

  6. I would say the odds explained above are about right. I have caught 5 total. My friend who plays this more than I and has caught more magikarp overall, still hasn’t even seen 1.

  7. I caught two shiney magikarp within fifteen minutes of each other on the start of the water festival, this was obviously my lucky event because even though i play daily i still have a few pokemon to get for my pokedex.

  8. I am so upset that everyone is catching shiny magikarp after about 3 thousand candies thus that being 1 thousand magikarp caught. I have caught just over 4 thousand magikarp since shiny magikarp were released and i still have not found a shiny magikarp.

  9. I caught our 6th Shiny Magikarp. 2 on each account. I noticed that Shiny is a Random catch. I thought that who ever catch it first will turn into Shiny but I was wrong. The last the same Magikarp we caught didn’t turn into shiny after the third catch. Wish you all Good Luck!

    • I Think you are mistaken about what a shiny is, they dont turn into a shiny like say, a Pokémon turns into a ditto, it’s just shiny. And no, once one percsrn catches a shiny in one spot it doesn’t show as a shiny for snyone else. Your comment irks me because people like you and other liars ruin the statistics.

      • Liar? I assume you never caught 1 sorry about that. It does not turn like ditto. I just caught my 8th Shiny last week. I even tried to run away then catch another Magikarp then come back to catch the shiny Magikarp it stays shiny. I think it register to your account once you pick the right time but not to the next person next to you who tries to catch same magikarp.

  10. I have caught 779 magikarp and not one shiny!!! Very frustrated! I’m a daily player so hopefully I’ll see one soon.

  11. Im at location 37.810346, -122.41113 where there is the largest Magikarp nests. Cought 978 additional karps just at that location. Been there almost 3 weeks consistant. No Shiny Karp. . I think this is bs as i conclude that tue people who have shiny karp work for the company and want to increase user ratings and want idiots like me spending all their time looking for something that is not there.

  12. After 250 magikarp I got a shiny. Caught 600 total in water event. Caught 400 more since event ended, no more shines. Literally 1/1000. But I did finally fill my gen 1 & 2 pokedex 😃👍🏻

  13. I have caught more than 400magikarp with 2 accounts, and my girlfriend over 300, and no shiny
    I bet the chance can be 1/4012 or lower

  14. I caught about 1200 Magikarp during the water festival. Two were shiny. (One, a cp 27 with only a decent appraisal, I evolved into a 2650 red gyrados. It just kept powering up and still looks like it might go higher. The other is a cp 78 but has an even worse appraisal. I’m not going to evolve it.) My daughter caught at least as many Magikarp as I did, but not one shiny. Of my friends who play pokemon go, only one got a shiny during the event. My guess is that shiny’s are about 1 in 500.

  15. I think they are much rarer than that. I play with my son’s and my own phone and I play regularly on the waterfront. I also put way too much time into the water festival and have caught about 600 magikarp between us ( enough for both of us to evolve 3 gyarados each plus another 200 candy or so)
    And I got 1 shinny for myself and thats it. They are definitely individualized and very much harder to find.

  16. I finally got my wife her first Shiny Magikarp today. I got 2 already and 1 for my son but feel bad for my wife since she was next to us when I got my 100% IV and 82% IV Shiny Magikarp. So I dedicated my all weeks to get her 1. Almost lost my hope until today. Thank You! Can’t wait to show her.

    • Again with this shit. This guy is a liar, he’s everywhere with his comments on 100 lv shinies left and right for wife kids etc. A perfect shiny is 1/million

  17. I have over 500 catches and ain’t seen one Shiney I still have first gen pokemon that I have not even seen let alone catch this game consistently rapes me but I don’t have the heart to delete it cuz of my kid I have had eggs hatch and not give me anything and no they are not in my inventory either I put 9 eggs in at the same time while sitting on the couch and 6 hatch while I still have .3 on the other three how does that happen ? I put my eggs in and my girls puts hers in while I’m at .4 and hers hatch first while I still need .6 on a 2 km egg .. really at this kinda crap happens to me everyday

  18. Since water festival start, I had caught hundred of magikarp but non was shiny lol! Till now not going to give up yet since the water festive was over, shiny magikarp still out there.

  19. I’ve caught 300+ Magikarp along the lake in Austin and along the Mississippi River in New Orleans and have yet to find one single shiny. *sigh*

  20. I have a Pokémon go account that I use to cheat on, during the event I used the toggle setting to walk around and catch litterally hundreds. I stacked about 1200 Karp candies. NOT ONE SHINY

  21. I caught 250 Magikarp, then finally a Shiny. It didn’t turn gold until AFTER you click it to catch it; some people reported that their Shiny turned into a Ditto-MAJOR BUMMER!
    Im wondering if it is possible to catch a second; I’ve caught 500 since then and have not seen another-WHAT GIVES?!? Lol

  22. When they pop up, do they look like shiny Pokemon, or do you actually have to click on and go into catch mode to see if it is?
    OR do you just not know At all until you’ve caught it?

  23. During the Water Festival Event, I made it a goal to try and catch 300 Magikarp. I reached my goal, and exceeded it by a little bit. During the event I caught about 315 Magikarp. I did not see one Shiny Magikarp during the event, and have yet to see one.

  24. I caught 276 magikarps total that waterfestival week and only came across 1 shiny magikarp but I alway forgot to update my game for the first 4 days of the event.

  25. We caught total of 3 Gold Magikarp after 3 days of trying in SF during water fest. (2) on my Account and (1) on my Son but (0) on my Wife account. I noticed if you caught it on the right time then it will turn into gold. My Wife and Son did not get the same outcome on the same Magikarp. My 2nd Magikarp is 100%IV with 88CP. I used almost 200,000 startdust to max it.

  26. I caught around 200 Magikarp. The second day of the event I caught my Shiny (in my living room ). Unfortunately nobody else in my family caught a shiny. So far my red Gyrados is the only one we’ve seen in any gyms around. We drove down to a pond a few towns over, ever lure was lite for hour’s. Still out of Many ppl their nobody found a Shiny. I’d say they are Rare.

  27. I found a shiny within an hour of the water festival starting then caught enough magikarp to have 960 candies (how ever many magikarp that comes to) starting at zero candies, then the last day of the water festival caught another shiny!! I feel very luck cause i’ve only seen 2 red gyrados in my local gyms.

  28. Ive caight about 300 magicarp since the beginning of the water festival and still no shinny, yet in my area i saw 5 red gyrados in gyms. for a shinny magicarp is a unicorn. heres to hoping that one day maybe.

  29. During the water event, I captured enough Magikarp to evolve 1 into a Gyrados (I started with 0 candies) AND still have 280 candies toward another. I estimate it was roughly 170 Magikarp captured. Unfortunately, ZERO were shiny.

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