Now that the Water Festival event is well and truly over, and Shiny Magikarp are finally a thing in Pokemon GO, I think it’s about time we attempt to answer a very important question. Just how rare are shiny Magikarp in Pokemon GO?
In the main-series games, shiny Pokemon are incredibly rare. From Generation 2 all the way through Generation 5, you had a 1/8192 chance of encountering a shiny Pokemon in the wild. From Generation 6 onward, the odds were doubled; giving the player a 1/4096 chance. But what about in Pokemon GO?
At the moment, Magikarp are the only Pokemon in Pokemon GO that can be shiny. At some point in the future the other Pokemon will be added, but for now, all we have is the weak orange fish. So when it comes to finding out how rare shiny Pokemon are, the best we can do is try to figure out how rare shiny Magikarp are.
And shiny Magikarp seem to be far more common than in the main-series games. Thanks to a poll from The Silph Road, we can see that out of 17,589 Magikarp that were seen, 75 were shiny. This comes out to be around 1/235, which is roughly 17x better than the current generation of main-series Pokemon games.
Of course, that’s not the end of the story. In reality, the odds of finding a shiny Magikarp are probably worse than this, simply because in a poll that asks you how many Magikarp you’ve seen (and how many were shiny), players who haven’t caught a shiny ‘Karp yet are less likely to answer than those who have.
Thus, the data is probably (almost definitely) skewed. That being said, Pokemon GO is a more casual game when compared to main-series Pokemon games, so it’s no surprise that the encounter rate of shiny Magikarp is much higher than we’re used to.
At the end of the day, we’re not 100% that the numbers above represent the actual rarity of shiny Magikarp. Until we can gather more data, and more specifically, more data from people who haven’t caught a shiny Magikarp yet, we’re not going to be certain of the exact encounter rate of shiny Magikarp.
But what do you think? How rare are shiny Magikarp in Pokemon GO? Does 1 in 235 sound about right? Or do you think they’re more (or less) rare than that? Let me know what you think in the comment section below!
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